Director of Nationwide Intelligence Avril Haines additionally stated Russia’s precision munitions look like working out shortly.
The slowed tempo of combating in Ukraine is about to proceed over the subsequent a number of months and america sees no proof that Ukraine’s will to withstand Russia has diminished, regardless of Moscow’s crippling assaults on the Ukrainian energy grid, a senior US intelligence official stated.
Avril Haines, director of nationwide intelligence within the Biden administration, additionally stated on Saturday that she believed Russian President Vladimir Putin had been shocked that his navy had not achieved extra in its warfare on Ukraine.
“We’re seeing a sort of a lowered tempo already of the battle … and we anticipate that’s more likely to be what we see within the coming months,” Haines informed the annual Reagan Nationwide Defence Discussion board in California.
The Ukrainian and Russian militaries will try to refit and resupply to organize for counteroffensives after the winter, however there was a query as as to if the Kremlin may obtain that goal, she stated.
“We even have a good quantity of scepticism as as to if or not the Russians will probably be in reality ready to try this. I feel extra optimistically for the Ukrainians in that timeframe,” she stated.
Putin is starting to understand the challenges his navy is confronted with, Haines stated.
“I do suppose he’s changing into extra knowledgeable of the challenges that the navy faces in Russia. Nevertheless it’s nonetheless not clear to us that he has a full image at this stage of simply how challenged they’re … we see shortages of ammunition, for morale, provide points, logistics, an entire collection of issues that they’re going through,” she stated.
The Atlantic Council, a US suppose tank, stated just lately that winter situations in Ukraine might favour Russian defensive ways and permit the Russians to usher in newly-mobilised forces to positions held east of the Dnipro River and close to Crimea within the south.
“It might be Russia’s tactic to pressure a stalemate by the winter from extra entrenched positions with the intent to start rotating newly educated and outfitted mobilization forces to the entrance as spring approaches,” the council stated.
Haines stated Putin’s political targets in Ukraine didn’t seem to have modified, however US intelligence analysts thought Putin could also be keen to cut back his near-term navy targets “on a short lived foundation with the concept he would possibly then come again at this situation at a later time”.
She additionally stated Russia seemed to be depleting its navy stockpiles “fairly shortly”.
“That’s why you see them going to different nations successfully to attempt to get ammunition … and we’ve indicated that their precision munitions are working out a lot quicker in lots of respects,” she stated.
“It’s actually fairly extraordinary, and our personal sense is that they aren’t able to indigenously producing what they’re expending at this stage.”
Requested concerning the results of Russian assaults on Ukraine’s energy grid and different civilian infrastructure, Haines stated Moscow’s purpose was partly to undermine the desire of Ukrainians to withstand, including: “I feel we’re not seeing any proof of that being undermined proper now at this level.”
Russia was additionally trying to have an effect on Ukraine’s capability to prosecute battle and Kyiv’s economic system had been hit laborious.
“Ukraine’s economic system is struggling very badly. It’s been devastating.”
Visiting Kyiv on Saturday, US undersecretary for political affairs, Victoria Nuland, met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and different senior Ukrainian officers the place she stated Putin was not severe about peace talks.
“Diplomacy is clearly everybody’s goal however it’s important to have a keen associate,” she informed reporters.
“And it’s very clear, whether or not it’s the power assaults, whether or not it’s the rhetoric out of the Kremlin and the final angle, that Putin just isn’t honest or prepared for that,” she stated.
Biden had stated on Thursday that he was ready to talk to Putin if the Russian chief was serious about ending the warfare. However the concept died shortly when the Kremlin stated the West should recognise Moscow’s declared annexation of 4 Ukrainian areas.