Istanbul, Turkey – Within the aftermath of Turkey’s dramatic elections, a brand new title is on the lips of political commentators: third-placed presidential contender Sinan Ogan.
The nationalist candidate, backed by the ATA Alliance, secured 5.17 % of the vote. The help of these voters might be very important as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 69, and opposition chief Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, head to a second spherical on Could 28 as a result of neither crossed the 50-percent mark wanted for an outright win.
The approaching two weeks will see discussions between Ogan’s group and the 2 remaining contenders.
“In the intervening time, we’re not saying we are going to help this or that [candidate],” stated Ogan, 55, early on Monday. “Those that don’t distance themselves from terrorism mustn’t come to us.”
“It appeared from the very starting that the elections would go to the second spherical, and Turkish nationalists and Kemalists would be the ones who decide the second spherical,” he stated.
Ogan’s reference to “terrorism” is a crucial one. Within the eyes of Turkish nationalists, each Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have the help of these they think about aligned with terror teams.
Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy was backed by the Peoples’ Democratic Social gathering (HDP), which stems from Turkey’s wider Kurdish motion and is taken into account a political bedfellow of the Kurdistan Staff’ Social gathering (PKK) by nationalists reminiscent of Ogan.
The PKK has waged a 39-year marketing campaign in opposition to the Turkish state, which has led to tens of hundreds of deaths. It’s listed as a terror organisation by Turkey, america and the European Union.
Erdogan’s Justice and Improvement Social gathering (AK Social gathering), in the meantime, obtained help from Huda-Par, a predominantly Kurdish political Islamist social gathering. Three Huda-Par politicians have been elected to parliament by being included within the AK Social gathering’s candidate lists.
Huda-Par has historic hyperlinks to Hezbollah, a Kurdish group that waged a brutal marketing campaign of violence within the Nineties because it fought the PKK and focused Turkish cops. The group has no connection to its Lebanese namesake.
Who will he endorse?
“Ogan was clear from day one – he stated he would help the aspect that distances itself from terrorism,” stated Murat Yildiz, a former adviser for the Nationalist Motion Social gathering (MHP) who labored alongside Ogan when he was additionally a member of the MHP.
“He’ll ask Kilicdaroglu for guarantees that he gained’t collaborate with HDP on some points,” Yildiz stated. “Will probably be tough to debate this with Erdogan as a result of Erdogan has aligned with Huda-Par and there are three deputies from Huda-Par now.”
Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Sabanci College, stated splits between Kilicdaroglu and the nationalist Iyi Social gathering, the second-largest social gathering in his opposition Nation Alliance, turned nationalist voters away from his candidacy.
“Many swing voters went for Sinan Ogan, partly due to the nationalist card however partly as a result of he was a ‘not one of the above’ candidate,” Esen stated.
“A small constituency on this nation doesn’t notably like Erdogan however can also be very distant from the pro-Kurdish motion and finds Kilicdaroglu to be a weak chief,” he stated. “Ogan recruited these voters.”
“A lot of them are Turkish nationalist voters who should not actually bought by messages from both aspect as a result of Erdogan is allied with Huda-Par, a Kurdish Islamist social gathering, and Kilicdaroglu was seen as having a too cosy relationship with the Kurdish [HDP] opposition,” Esen stated.
Convincing his personal voters
It additionally stays to be seen whether or not Ogan’s supporters would vote with him within the run-off.
“Even when he agrees with Kilicdaroglu, he has to persuade his personal voters, and we don’t understand how loyal they’re to him,” Yildiz stated.
Ogan, an instructional with a background working for assume tanks, entered politics with the MHP, which is now allied with the AK Social gathering within the Individuals’s Alliance. He served a time period as an MHP parliamentary deputy from 2011 to 2015 for his residence province Igdir, which lies on Turkey’s japanese border.
“He’s a relaxed man, easy,” Yildiz stated. “Since his early political profession, he all the time aimed for the management of the MHP. He was the crown prince to [MHP leader Devlet] Bahceli and had an excellent relationship with him.”
“However as his reputation elevated, Bahceli began to see him as a menace,” Yildiz stated. “They slowly began to disintegrate. Ogan has a sure ego, which Bahceli additionally didn’t like.”
The mid-2010s had been a turbulent time for the MHP with senior social gathering members difficult Bahceli, partly because of his rising closeness to Erdogan. This led to Ogan being expelled from the social gathering in 2017 together with Meral Aksener and Umit Ozdag.
Aksener and Ozdag went on to kind the Iyi Social gathering. Ozdag was dismissed from the Iyi Social gathering in 2020 and based the anti-migrant Zafer Social gathering a yr later. The Zafer Social gathering is the driving drive of the ATA Alliance, which backs Ogan though he’s not a member.
It’s Ogan’s dedication to the MHP – which carried out unexpectedly effectively in Sunday’s vote, taking greater than 10 % – that has stopped him from becoming a member of or founding one other social gathering.
“When Aksener and Ozdag based the Iyi Social gathering, Ogan refused,” Yildiz stated. “He stated, ‘I used to be born MHP, and I’ll stay MHP.’”
“All the pieces he’s doing now ought to be seen on this context. Even his candidacy for the presidency is one other transfer to grow to be the chief of the MHP.”
