Taichung, Taiwan – On October 7, the Palestinian armed group Hamas launched a shock assault on Israel, firing hundreds of rockets that shortly overwhelmed Israel’s state-of-the-art Iron Dome air defence system whereas hundreds of fighters infiltrated southern Israel by air, sea and land.
The importance of Hamas’s shock assault was not misplaced on Taiwan’s army, which lives with a promise by Beijing’s political leaders to unify self-ruled Taiwan with China, by drive if crucial.
Within the week after Hamas’s raid on Israel, the Taiwanese defence ministry introduced the institution of a job drive to attract classes from the Israel-Gaza battle.
Taiwan’s defence minister, Chiu Kuo-cheng, has mentioned that an preliminary lesson is that intelligence gathering will likely be key to counter China’s threats.
Taiwan additionally has the ocean, mentioned 42-year-old Tony Wei, who’s a member of the Taiwanese reserves and a dentist by career.
Taiwan is separated from China’s east coast by a 130-kilometre (81-mile) stretch of ocean referred to as the Taiwan Strait which acts as a pure barrier and early warning system ought to Beijing attempt to overwhelm Taiwan in a shock assault.
“To invade Taiwan, they (the Chinese language army) have to collect a really giant fleet,” Wei instructed Al Jazeera.
China’s mobilisation of such a naval drive would most likely be detected by Taiwan, giving the self-ruled island time to prepared for an invasion and even launch a preemptive assault, Wei mentioned.
Nonetheless, the Hamas raid – largely thought of unimaginable by army analysts earlier than it occurred – has made Wei query whether or not Taiwan actually possesses the capabilities essential to counter a probably decided Chinese language army.
“The Israelis have a really highly effective army, an efficient intelligence service and numerous American assist,” Wei mentioned. “If even Israel will be shocked and overwhelmed, then what about Taiwan?”
The Israel-Gaza battle is the second time the world has not too long ago been bowled over by a army operation thought of inconceivable till it was carried out.
“They mentioned that President Putin wouldn’t assault Ukraine, however he did, they usually mentioned that Hamas couldn’t assault Israel, however they did,” Wei mentioned, referring to the Russian invasion of February 2022.
“Taiwan must be taught from these assaults in case our island turns into the following place the place the unthinkable occurs.”
Shock assaults: Figuring out earlier than, responding after
“Hamas’s assault achieved strategic, operational, and tactical shock towards the Israelis,” Eric Chan, a non-resident analysis fellow on the International Taiwan Institute, instructed Al Jazeera.
“Taiwan has a vested curiosity in avoiding this sort of shock, particularly as a result of their adversary has larger powers than Hamas,” Chan mentioned.
“The Russian invasion, in addition to the shock assault by Hamas, was an object demonstration that when you might imagine that the adversary is deterred by excessive prices, the adversary may very well not care,” he added.
Fang-Yu Chen, an assistant professor at Soochow College in Taipei who researches political relations between Taiwan, China and the US, mentioned that Taiwan’s introduced institution of a job drive within the aftermath of the Hamas assault was an try and be taught classes in an effort to forestall a Taiwanese intelligence failure as regards to China.
“Taiwan is continually selecting up numerous details about China’s actions, however such info must be verified, analysed and handed on to the proper individuals,” Chen instructed Al Jazeera.
In response to Chen, Taiwan may look to strengthening its intelligence gathering in an effort to be sure that credible threats from China are clearly recognized earlier than a possible catastrophe strikes.
“The subsequent main consideration is what to do after an assault has already taken place,” he mentioned.
Taiwan’s authorities has taken steps in that route, too.
Extra money is being allotted to the army; obligatory army service for Taiwanese residents is being prolonged from 4 months to at least one 12 months; the acquisition of recent missile programs was introduced, and the island’s first domestically constructed submarine was additionally unveiled earlier this month.
In its preparations, Taiwan has additionally seemed to and realized from the battle in Ukraine, in line with Chen.
A serious lesson of Russia’s invasion is the significance of not solely strengthening the island’s typical army and intelligence but in addition its capabilities throughout the discipline of knowledge warfare in an effort to win the battle of the narrative, he mentioned.
Warfare of narratives
Chen has noticed that China’s info operations directed at Taiwan have adjusted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Earlier than the Ukraine battle, the propaganda was typically about how the US will abandon Taiwan, however after the battle, it has been about how the US is pushing China in the direction of battle,” he mentioned.
On the similar time, Chen has detected a polarisation of public opinion in Taiwan with individuals who have been already keen to battle towards Chinese language aggression turning into extra keen to confront Beijing whereas those that have been unwilling to battle have develop into even much less keen.
Amid this battle for public opinion and efforts to affect private resolve among the many Taiwanese, Taiwan’s authorities final 12 months launched a ministry of digital affairs which has since launched a variety of measures to fight disinformation directed on the island and its inhabitants.
Within the battle of narratives it isn’t only a matter of countering disinformation that reaches Taiwan, mentioned Wei, the army reservist, but in addition about how Taiwan obtains the backing of different international locations.
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has additionally taken sure preliminary steps to perform this by encouraging the island to inform its personal story to the world. By the “Give Taiwan a Voice” marketing campaign, her administration has protested towards Taiwan’s exclusion from the United Nations and sought to focus on the island’s contributions to the worldwide group.
On the similar time, Tsai has sought to succeed in out to and combine Taiwan extra extensively with international locations in South and Southeast Asia by a so-called “southbound coverage” below the slogan of “Taiwan helps Asia, Asia helps Taiwan”.
Wei believes such initiatives are necessary if Taiwan is to win over world opinion within the face of accelerating strain from China.
For Wei, the significance of profitable the narrative was highlighted within the info battle that broke out between Israel and Hamas over duty for the lethal explosion on the al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza.
The battle to persuade the world of the magnitude and duty for the hospital atrocity had far-reaching penalties as conferences between US President Joe Biden – Israel’s staunchest ally – and several other Arab leaders have been cancelled amid a world outcry over the assault.
As Wei mentioned, nobody helps somebody who bombs hospitals, and nobody can win a battle with out help from the skin.
Profitable the knowledge battle, he mentioned, will likely be essential for Taiwan in any potential confrontation with China.
“So, we should win the disagreement in order that we are able to rely on worldwide assist if Chinese language bombs strike Taiwan.”
